This year is on track to become the hottest year on record in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) book. The prediction is sustained by other leading institutions monitoring global temperatures and atmospheric shifts.
It already stands clear that 2015 is bound to be a record breaking year. And not in a positive sense. With the hottest ever recorded start of the year, the hottest summer ever recorded, the hottest calendar year, it stands no chance of no longer occupying this commanding lead. Last year also broke the record for the hottest year registered.
Last month, September 2015 was registered as the hottest September since the beginning of NOAA records. The large leading margin puts September 2015 in the lead of all the 1,629 months ever registered. Throughout the 20th century, NOAA calculated an average of 59 degrees Fahrenheit.
This year’s September surpassed this average by a margin of 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit. According to NASA records, the month ranked as the second hottest September registered. However, the difference stems from different data assimilation methodologies.
Natural events like El Niño contribute to record global temperatures. Nonetheless, the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere boosts the buildup of heat. As such, the balance is increasingly tipped in favor of heat record events.
Jessica Blunden with the National Center for Environmental Information at NOAA explained:
“Generally, El Niño year keep getting warmer compared to one another”.
However, what is noteworthy is that six highest record temperatures compared to the 20th century average have been registered this year. That is six highest temperatures since NOAA records, out of ten record months in 136 years.
This year, the previous record holders for the hottest month were February 2015 and March 2015. Both were registered to be 0.89 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than the previously mentioned average. Overall, 2015 is estimated to surpass the average by 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit, becoming the hottest year on record as well. Previously, 2010 and 2014 were registered as hottest years, each with a margin of 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit over the average.
Since the year 2000, 13 years have held the record for hottest years registered. This year is on track to become the hottest year on record. NASA established that the chances are at 93 percent, while NOAA predicts that there are 97 percent chances.
Photo Credits: ncdc.noaa.gov